Production and Operations Management Consulting.
Demand forecasting: Procedure of Winters
The forecasting procedure of Winters for trend and seasonal demand is applied. Initial values for the seasonal factors can be computed in the module Time series analysis.
|Alpha||smoothing constant for the base level|
|Beta||smoothing constant for the slope|
|Gamma||smoothing constant for the seasonal indices|
|b0(t)||base level of the tren line in period t|
|b1(t)||slope of the trend line in period t|
|s(j)||seasonal factor for seasonal period j|
|Y(t)||observed demand in period t|
|P(t)||forecasted demand for period t|
- Silver/Peterson (1985)